iComplai Predicted New Pesticide Hazards in Apples and Lemons

1) Executive Summary

Between 16–23 Sep 2025, iComplai recorded two new hazard in commodity events: profenofos in lemons (Sep 16) and acetamiprid in apples (Sep 23). Both were preceded by model signals in the Prediction History—flagging these commodity–substance pairs in advance and guiding targeted testing and supplier due diligence.

2) Background

  • Commodities: Lemon; Apple

  • Hazards: Profenofos (organophosphate); Acetamiprid (neonicotinoid)

  • Compliance context: Maximum residue level (MRL) risk in fresh produce supply chains.

    These recurring, ranked predictions across refresh cycles indicated persistent likelihood of detection.

3) Early Warning Signals (Model Evidence)

From the Prediction History dashboard (scope: 280 unique ingredients, 251 predicted substances, 111 origins, 2,889 unique ingredient/origin/substance combinations):

  • Apple—Egypt—Acetamiprid: repeatedly surfaced with SUBSTANCE_PREVIOUSLY_PREDICTED (e.g., Sep 29, 2025).

  • Lemon—Iran—Profenofos: recorded with SUBSTANCE_PREVIOUSLY_PREDICTED (e.g., Sep 22, 2025).

4) Prediction & Risk Scoring

The model weighted cross-ingredient recurrence, origin clustering, and prior exceedance history, assigning:

  • High likelihood for Acetamiprid ↔ Apple;

  • Elevated likelihood for Profenofos ↔ Lemon (mid-rank but persistent).

5) Customer Alerts & Recommended Actions

  • Add acetamiprid (apples) and profenofos (lemons) to priority MRL test panels.

  • Request GAP/PHI documentation from growers and packers; verify last-application records.

  • Segment by origin (e.g., apples from Egypt; lemons from Iran) to focus sampling and release decisions.

6) Validation (Monitoring Feed)

  • Sep 16, 2025: “New hazard in commodity — lemon / profenofos”

  • Sep 23, 2025: “New hazard in commodity — apple / acetamiprid”
    Both entries are consistent with prior Prediction History flags marked PREVIOUSLY_PREDICTED.

7) Lessons Learned

  • Persistence matters: Mid-rank signals that persist often transition to confirmed hazards.

  • Origin-aware targeting: Combining commodity + origin improves the yield of positive findings in testing.

  • Lead time gains: Embedding predicted analytes before public notices reduces release delays and rework.

Asli Solmaz